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New evidence for the reawakening of Teide volcano.
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Particularly important are geophysical and geochemical analytical techniques that image changes in space and time, including the following:. An improved understanding of seismic wave generation, including low-frequency earthquakes and tremor, could allow these signals to be incorporated into dynamical models.
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Changes in stress, documented by volcano tectonic earthquakes and changes in seismic velocities, could be jointly analyzed with geodetic, gas, and gravity measurements to image subsurface magma transport Box 3. Once an eruption commences, the combination of eruption flux and geodetic data can be used to constrain total magma chamber volume, pressure, and volatile content Anderson and Segall, ; Mastin et al. Eruption models conditioned on these and other observations gas emissions, gravity, and seismicity could be updated to yield probabilistic forecasts of future behavior e.
It will be a significant challenge to develop and test such models on active volcanoes. Physical—chemical models of ash dispersal, lava flow, and, to lesser degree, pyroclastic density current inundation are more advanced and so offer more near-term promise for this approach. Tremendous strides have been made in developing techniques to forecast eruptions in the short term.
Eruptions can be forecast using monitoring data on gas emissions, volcanic earthquakes, deformation, and other geophysical signals. Together, these phenomena are sensitive indicators of potential eruptions. Yet, in practice there is a dearth of monitored volcanoes and a paucity of coordinated monitoring studies.
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Even in the United States, only a subset of volcanoes are well monitored by ground-based instrumentation, and they tend to be volcanoes that erupt relatively frequently, typically producing small-magnitude events, or that are located in high-risk areas. There is a critical need for more comprehensive volcano monitoring using ground-based seismic, geodetic, and gas sensing tools. In particular, high-resolution degassing and hydrologic data are gen-. When unrest begins, the basic infrastructure will need to be rapidly augmented with additional sensors and more diverse and emerging technologies, such as drones and rapid petrologic analyses.
Open sharing of all data in near real time, emulating the successes of the seismologic community, will be vital. Increased spatial and temporal resolution of satellite-borne remote sensing instruments Table 1. Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer have high spatial resolution but low temporal resolution and so rarely provide timely observations of thermal signals such as small lava flows within craters e.
Similarly, rapid surface deformations cannot be adequately monitored with infrequent InSAR passes. For example, the planned NASA—Indian Space Research Organisation synthetic aperture radar mission provides day repeat passes, which are too coarse for monitoring or documenting the evolution of eruptions. With a larger constellation of satellites, this repeat time could be reduced. It is still unclear if the increases in CO 2 emissions that can precede eruptions are detectable using current satellites e.
Additional satellites, automated detection of anomalies via those satellites e. The paucity of well-observed large eruptions poses a different set of challenges. Though relatively infrequent, the consequences of these large eruptions are grave Figure 1. Thus, it is critical that the volcano science community prepare to make comprehensive and high-quality observations of the next major eruption, regardless of where on Earth it is located.
It is likely that the next major eruption will occur at a completely unmonitored and poorly characterized volcano, because 1 instrumentally monitored volcanoes tend to be those which have erupted in recent history, and 2 long periods of repose may be directly correlated with erupted volume e. For example, precursory unrest began only a few months before the paroxysmal eruption of Mount Pinatubo in A further complication is that a large eruption may not be immediately apparent from initial precursory unrest. Satellite-borne measurements provide a global picture of where on-land volcanoes are deforming e.
However, forecasting the location, timing, and magnitude of major eruptions on the basis of this information remains challenging. One way to balance the tradeoff between long repose between major eruptions and our need to mitigate their dire consequences is to work toward sparse ground-based monitoring of all potentially active volcanoes such as one or two seismometers , noting that six instruments constitute a well-monitored volcano Winson et al.
The utility of sparse ground-based observations can be dramatically increased by scanning for all signs of unrest, including deformation, increased heat flux, and gas emissions using satellite-borne instrumentation, ideally at least daily because of the sometimes short times between the initiation of unrest and the onset of eruption Figure 2. Detection of unrest that appears to herald a major eruption would then need to be followed by rapid deployment of a dense, multiparameter network of telemetered ground-based instrumentation. Such an effort would require significant resources and advance planning, developing algorithms for automated processing and scanning of satellite data, tasking satellite-borne instruments to collect more frequent observations of restless volcanoes, a cache of ground-based instrumentation, a response plan specifying the selection of personnel and procedures for import and installation of instruments, and advance coordination with monitoring agencies worldwide.
Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptions—where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences.
Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them.
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Page 56 Share Cite. TABLE 3. Mount St. Helens United States , Lateral blast and VEI 5 eruption occurred after a period of elevated seismicity, dramatic dome growth, and phreatic explosions Lipman and Mullineaux, Yes and no. Although unrest was observed for months and led to heightened surveillance, the timing, directionality, and scale of the eruption was not anticipated and 57 individuals perished. Kilauea United States , —? Repeated episodes of lava fountaining and effusion were well monitored. The geodetic network at the summit is used to anticipate downrift eruptive activity with hours of warning Anderson et al.
Generally yes as the eruption progressed. Observations led to a viable model, which was used to estimate a high likelihood of events during certain time intervals. The long duration of activity more than 30 years was not anticipated. Nevado del Ruiz Colombia , Modest eruption spawned large lahars, which was a hazard previously recognized in both historical and geologic observations. Phreatic eruptive activity and elevated volcanic gases pointed to unrest beginning 1 year prior to eruption Pierson et al. Although elevated activity spurred volcano study and the development of hazard maps, government agencies were unable to forecast the primary hazard and provide guidance in a timely manner.
More than 25, deaths resulted. Pinatubo Philippines , ; see also Box 3.
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Its potential Plinian eruption size was anticipated based on studies of previous eruption deposits. Yes, in the sense that evacuations out to 40 km were issued prior to the paroxysmal event and valuable property at Clark Air Force Base was moved in a timely manner.