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But what happens when mid-majors play major conference teams in the Sweet 16? Elite Eight? And as you see, only 17 have ever made it to the Final Four. You get the point—they get less and less valuable as time goes on, and that's if they're any good in the first place. Oh, and the Mountain West is always overrated. Pick them all to lose. Conservative mindset rules the day in round one.
The eight-seed vs.
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But go up to the seven vs. It starts to get lopsided at Six seeds are against the elevens, fives are against twelves, and once you get to fours vs. In short: Don't pick any seed or higher to win, because there's no money in it. And if you're going to choose a 12, 11, or 10, have a damn good reason and you should be pretty sure that if you're wrong, the team that wins can't win another round—my one "crazy" pick is seed UCI over a highly imbalanced Kansas St.
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Bracket pools are won by accumulating points, and even though crazy upsets are fun to pick, every one you miss can cost you points for more than just one round. Be safe in the opening rounds, and reap the benefits. Slow teams are a dangerous mystery. Here's a simple mathematical truth: if you play fewer possessions in a game, there's more variance from game to game.
In other words, play slow and you increase your chances of losing on a bad day.
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It gets worse under pressure, and Virginia proved the point yet again last season in the most dramatic way possible: They lost to a seed in the first round. It had never happened before, but the truth is it could only happen to a team like Virginia—a team that plays slow, doesn't function well playing from behind, and has no second gear when things go bad. Of course, we're not going to see something that crazy every year, and we may go our entire lives without seeing it again, but the Virginia-type teams become vulnerable as the tournament goes on.
There's a reason the Cavs themselves have been total disappointments in the Tony Bennett era, despite routinely dominating an incredibly tough ACC conference in the regular season. Does slow pace sometimes screw other teams up? Can they win titles? Not very often. Beware the bad coaches. Bad coaches lose tournament games, period. I realize this forces you to know something about college basketball, so here's your shorthand, with an assist from Bleacher Report college basketball obsessive Kerry Miller: Beware Fran McCaffery at Iowa notice how he never wins many tourney games, and also notice how imbalanced Iowa is , Travis Ford at St.
Now, with that all said, time to put my money brackets where my mouth is. Here's my bracket—as you'll see, there's still some guess work. I originally had Wisconsin over Virginia, but realized that since I basically believe it's a coin flip, I'd be losing points to Virginia pickers if I didn't take them. Florida-Nevada is almost impossible to pick. Nevertheless, I think this is a smart bracket. As I said, use what you want, reject what you must. Good luck out there: Glory awaits the prudent bracketeer.
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Pick a smart champion The Washington Post has a wonderful searchable database where you can look at specific match-ups between seeds or for specific rounds. The One, Two, and Three-Seeds are your Final Four friends Similar idea here—looking at Final Fours since , 33 of 48 teams have been one, two, or three-seeds from their respective regions. Be extremely careful about killing a one-seed early Here's a stat for you: In second-round matches between a one-seed and an eight- or nine-seed, the one-seed is since Kill the imbalanced teams, and kill them dead In my days of extensive research , I found that teams with good offense and bad defense never fare well in the tournament, and teams with good defense and bad offense do even worse.
Trust regular season conference champions, be suspicious of trendy conference tourney champs Some very simple rules: If a team wins both the regular season and conference tournament, trust them. Use your mid-majors wisely In the first round, mid-majors with a HIGHER seed than a major conference team are an excellent since Pancakes Anyone? Viral Videos. On To Bah Gawd That's Rizzo's Music! Utter Chaos.
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