At least according to official data. One of the leading demographers of China, Yi Fuxian, believes the official data undersells the real picture. The senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of "Big Country with an Empty Nest" believes China has million people fewer than the 1. China's economic, social, political, educational and diplomatic policies are all based on false demographic data," Yi told DW.
For three decades, China operated the "one-child" policy of population control. This was abandoned in in favor of a two-child policy to boost the labor force. In , after the one-child policy was abandoned, there were This dropped to Much of China's astonishing economic growth of the past four decades has been fueled by a young labor force, but this too is in rapid decline, while the elderly population is dramatically increasing. In China in , the ratio was six workers in the age bracket supporting one senior citizen at least 65 years old.
This will decline to 2. As women live six to seven years longer than men on average [and are usually a few years younger than their husbands], they will be the main victims of population control," said Yi. Clearly more needs to be done to encourage women to have more children. But couples in developed societies have fewer kids, largely because of expensive education costs and pressure on household incomes in the cities.
Average fertility rates in Taiwan and Hong Kong from to were 1. These areas all fall within China's cultural sphere. We live in a grey world. For the first time last year, there were more people on Earth who were 65 and over than children under 5. The key to easing the effects of a greying population in China is to raise the participation of older workers and women in the workforce. It also needs to look to immigration, currently at negligible levels in China. And key to all of this is productivity. Investment in new technologies should help," said Magnus.
As its society overall ages, China plans to scrap its one-child policy. Other Asian nations also face the challenge of demographic change. Chinese government scholars say the proportion of elderly people will steadily rise, while the country's population will decline. The dynamic could have a far-reaching impact on China's social and economic development. China resorted to a one-child policy in to limit its then-ballooning population, and then over three decades later changed it to a two-child policy.
Experts say it cannot be a model for other countries. China's statistics bureau has announced a significant dip in the country's birth rate. The number of babies born in China last year fell by 2 million, despite Beijing's shift on family planning restrictions. The size of the economically active population has been dwindling in China for decades, posing a challenge to the social security system. The US has removed tariffs on over Chinese goods after American firms complained that the levies would cause economic hardship.
But trade talks between the world's top two economies remain on a delicate footing. Accusations that Huawei helped Uganda and Zambia spy on opponents have intensified concerns about China exporting its digital surveillance tools to Africa. But Western companies are also selling spyware on the continent. Amid US efforts to isolate the company, Huawei has benefited from new 5G contracts and millions of smartphone sales. But the company's chairman made clear that it "may affect the pace of our growth in the short term.
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