Manual Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

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ISBN 13: 9780833032751

All Languages. More filters. Sort order. Vivek Mohta rated it really liked it Dec 01, Marcus Ionis rated it liked it Apr 23, Chad Bailey rated it it was amazing Apr 10, Popper, Steven C. No cover image. Read preview. Synopsis Long-range thinking poses a dilemma. When the stakes are high, the problem complex, and the future starkly unfamiliar-preserving the earth's environment, ensuring the future of social security, or managing the implications of biotechnology, for example-experts turn to formal analytic tools to chart their way forward.

But all these tools ultimately require the impossible: accurately predicting the long-term future. Scenario analysis has been used through much of RAND's five decades as a means to break through the limits on thinking about the unknown.

Quantitative Scenarios Can Help Identify Arctic Research Needs | SEARCH Program

Analysts then use visualisation and statistical analysis of the resulting large database of model runs to help decision makers identify the key features that distinguish those futures in which their plans meet and miss their goals. RDM combines the best features of scenario analysis, red-teaming, and quantitative risk analysis. RDM is now being used to manage the deeply uncertain risks of climate change. The Colorado River system serves 30 million people in seven states and irrigates 15 percent of US agriculture.

Growing demand, increasing temperatures, and declining precipitation threaten the future management of the river. Using RDM, the stakeholders — the Bureau of Reclamation and other interested parties — tested the performance of current river management against 23, alternative futures.


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The alternative scenarios reflected different but possible projections of the future climate, drawn from global circulation models and paleoclimate reconstructions of past mega-droughts in the region, assumptions about future demand, and political assumptions regarding how the parties might respond to future crises. This analysis helped a diverse and often contentious group of stakeholders agree on the vulnerabilities facing the river system and explore hundreds of options for reducing the imbalance between water supply and demand. The Bureau of Reclamation is also using and training its staff in these methods.

My brother represented Silicon Valley for 10 years in the California legislature.

UCL-Energy seminar: 'Long-Term Political Sustainability of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Policies'

My sister is mayor of Princeton New Jersey. I have always been interested in the intersection of science, policy, and politics.

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I am also an environmentalist. In graduate school, I studied condensed matter physics and science policy. When the British fleet set sail for the South Atlantic, the model sceptics confronted the model builders.

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You know in detail all the British and Argentine forces, the sceptics said, and have a month to run your models. Tell us how the battle will unfold. The analytic frameworks for predictive decision and risk analysis evolved in the s and s when relative computation poverty made a virtue of analytics recommending a single best answer based on a single best estimate prediction. But Dr Bankes, envisioning a future of ubiquitous and inexpensive computation, explored models better suited to complex problems that defy a single, ideal solution. Dr Lempert seized upon the exploratory modelling concept as a means to study climate change and mitigate its effects.

We could use computers to stress-test a million different assumptions. Discussions there crystallised for me new ideas on how to use models and ubiquitous computation to improve reasoning about how best to shape the future.